True Count Conversion Explained
Why you need the true count
The running count measures how many more low cards than high cards have come out. By itself it is misleading, because it ignores how many cards are left. A running count of +6 is exciting with one deck remaining and almost meaningless with six.
The true count fixes this. It is the running count per deck remaining:
True count = running count ÷ decks remaining
If you do not yet know how to keep the running count, start with how to count cards with Hi-Lo.
Worked examples
Example 1
The running count is +8 and there are 4 decks left. 8 ÷ 4 = a true count of +2.
Example 2
The running count is +8 and there are 2 decks left. 8 ÷ 2 = a true count of +4. Same running count, but much better for you.
Example 3
The running count is -6 and there are 3 decks left. -6 ÷ 3 = a true count of -2. The remaining cards favor the dealer, so bet the minimum.
Example 4: half decks
The running count is +5 and there are 2.5 decks left. 5 ÷ 2.5 = a true count of +2.
Estimating decks remaining
You do not need to count the cards in the shoe. Look at the discard tray, estimate how many decks have been dealt, and subtract from the starting number. A full deck is a stack about as thick as a few fingers, so you learn to recognize it over time. Rounding to the nearest half deck is good enough.
For example, in a 6-deck shoe, if you estimate that 2.5 decks are in the tray, there are 3.5 left.
Rounding
Most counters round the true count down toward zero, or to the nearest whole number. Pick one method and stay with it. For example, a true count of 2.7 becomes +2 when rounding down. A beginner can also skip the division and use a rough conversion table.
Quick reference
This table shows the true count for different running counts and decks remaining, rounded down:
| Running count | 1 deck left | 2 decks left | 3 decks left | 4 decks left |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +4 | +4 | +2 | +1 | +1 |
| +8 | +8 | +4 | +2 | +2 |
| +12 | +12 | +6 | +4 | +3 |
| -4 | -4 | -2 | -1 | -1 |
What to do with it
The true count tells you how much to bet. At a true count of +1 or below, bet the minimum. As it rises to +2, +3 and beyond, raise your bet. It also triggers a few changes to basic strategy. For example, insurance becomes a good bet at a true count of +3 or higher, because the remaining cards are rich in tens. We explain why on the insurance page.
Make sure your basic strategy is solid first. The strategy chart and the trainer will get you there.
Do it faster
- Practice converting before you play. Pick random running counts and deck numbers and divide.
- Learn the common cases: with 2 decks left, halve the count; with 4 decks left, divide by four.
- Some counters update the true count only at the start of each round, not each card.
Common questions
Do I need the true count in a single deck game?
Less so. With one deck, the running count and true count are close, especially early in the deck. The conversion matters more in shoes.
What if I miscount the decks?
Small errors are fine. Being off by half a deck changes the true count only a little.
Should I round up or down?
Either works if you stay consistent. Rounding down is more cautious.
Does the true count matter with a CSM?
No. A continuous shuffler resets the shoe constantly. See CSM.